AFC Playoff Preview - Jags @ Pats

Ticker Preview

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) vs. New England Patriots (16-0)
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Saturday, 5 p.m., CBS

Coaches' playoff records:
Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville, 1-1 Bill Belichick, New England, 13-3

Last meeting:
December 24, 2006 at Jacksonville, Florida. Tom Brady threw one touchdown passes and the Patriots held off a late comeback by the Jaguars in a 24-21 victory. Brady completed 28-of-39 passes for 249 while running backs Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney each had a rushing touchdown. Maurice Jones-Drew, starting in the place of an injured Fred Taylor, scored a pair of touchdowns on runs of 74 and 1 yard. David Garrard also threw a 33-yard scoring pass to Matt Jones to cut the lead to 24-21 with 3:03 to play.

Jacksonville offense against New England defense ------------------------------------------------
Key Matchups:
RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew vs. NFL's 10th-ranked run defense
QB David Garrard vs. NFL's 6th-ranked pass defense
WR Reggie Williams vs. CB Asante Samuel
C Brad Meester vs. NT Vince Wilfork
RT Tony Pashos vs. LB Mike Vrabel

The Patriots have been vulnerable against the run in the second half of the season, with three backs rushing for over 100 yards against them. In last season's matchup, Jones-Drew rumbled for 131 yards and two touchdowns while Taylor sat out with an injury. Taylor ripped off five straight 100-yard games at the end of the season before being held to 48 in Jacksonville's wild card victory in Pittsburgh. Garrard had just three interceptions vs. 18 TD passes in the regular season, but struggled against the Steelers, going 9-of-21 for 140 yards, one TD and two picks. His mobility hurt Pittsburgh and could be a factor against New England's slow inside linebacker tandem of Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau. Still, the Jaguars need to control the ball with the running game, not wanting Garrard trying to match points with Brady and Co.

New England offense against Jacksonville defense ------------------------------------------------
Key Matchups:
QB Tom Brady vs. NFL's 15th-ranked pass defense
RB Laurence Maroney vs. NFL's 11th-ranked run defense
WR Randy Moss vs. CB Rashean Mathis
WR Wes Welker vs. FS Reggie Nelson
LT Matt Light vs. RE Paul Spicer

Expect the Patriots to do what they have all season - come out with Brady throwing deep to Moss and underneath to Welker. The Jaguars were unable to stop Pittsburgh's passing game, which is an ominous sign against an offense that produced a league-record 589 points. Unlike the Steelers, the Patriots likely won't even attempt to establish the run unless weather conditions are adverse. Mathis had two interceptions against Pittsburgh, but he'll have his hands full keeping up with Moss, who led the league with an NFL-record 23 TD receptions. Jacksonville, which had only 37 sacks during the regular season, must find a way to generate pressure on league MVP Brady, who threw for 4,806 yards, an NFL- record 50 TD passes and just eight interceptions. While Maroney has had only 185 carries, he did finish the season with two 100- yard games in his last three.

Three keys to the game ----------------------
1) Back-to-back successes: Jaguars will need to control the clock with the running of Taylor and Jones-Drew to keep New England's high-powered offense on the sideline.
2) Wes-coast Offense: Moss caught at least one touchdown pass in 13 of the 16 games, so stopping him is near-impossible. Slowing Welker, who had 112 receptions, is a must for Jacksonville.
3) Weather the storm: Even though Jacksonville is a warm-weather franchise, it might need a little snow or at least an arctic blast to help rein in New England's offense.